WMO Warns the World Faces an Exceptionally Hot End to 2026 and Start of 2027
A strengthening El Niño and record heat so far this year mean the planet is likely to stay unusually warm through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said.
The world is on track for an unusually hot finish to 2026 and a sweltering start to 2027, according to a new warning from the World Meteorological Organization. The UN agency released its latest State of the Climate report as the COP31 climate summit opened in Turkey, painting a picture of a planet already near record warmth and heading higher.
El Niño will add extra heat
The WMO said a building El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is expected to push global temperatures up by another 0.1C to 0.2C. That may sound small, but on a planetary scale it is enough to tip more regions into dangerous heat, intensify droughts, and fuel heavier downpours. The phenomenon arrives on top of a year that has already seen temperatures climb sharply.
The numbers behind the warning
Between January and September, global temperatures averaged 1.47C above the pre-industrial baseline, the WMO reported. That places 2026 among the warmest years ever recorded. The figure underscores how quickly the planet is moving toward the 1.5C threshold that scientists have long described as a guardrail for limiting the worst effects of climate change.
Why every fraction of a degree matters
Each incremental rise in global temperature translates into more frequent and severe extreme weather. Heat waves strain power grids and public health systems, droughts hurt crop yields and food prices, and intense rainfall can overwhelm infrastructure from South Asia to North America. For governments and businesses, the costs of adaptation keep rising alongside the thermometer.
The COP31 backdrop
The warning lands as negotiators gather in Turkey for COP31, the latest UN climate summit. Delegates are under pressure to accelerate emissions cuts, increase financing for vulnerable nations, and turn long-term climate pledges into near-term action. The WMO report is likely to dominate early discussions, giving diplomats a fresh data point to argue that current targets are not enough.
What comes next
Forecasters expect the extra warmth from El Niño to linger for months. Even if the event peaks during the northern hemisphere winter, its effects will ripple into early 2027. The message from the WMO is that the world is not merely flirting with record heat; it is entering a prolonged period where exceptional warmth could become the baseline.
