China’s Economy Regains Footing as Exports Drive Third-Quarter Rebound to 4.5%

China’s economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating forecasts and easing pressure on policymakers to roll out more aggressive stimulus to hit the government’s full-year growth target.

The reading topped the 4.4% median estimate in a Reuters poll and marked a clear improvement from the second quarter’s 4.3% pace, the slowest in more than three years, suggesting the economy found firmer footing heading into the final stretch of 2026.

Strong foreign demand for Chinese technology goods was the main driver of the rebound, helping offset continued drag from a deepening property-sector slump and consumer spending that has remained sluggish for much of the year.

With growth running at 4.6% over the first nine months of the year, China's full-year target of roughly 4.5% to 5% now looks within reach, though economists caution that a strong fourth quarter will still be needed to lock it in.

The underlying composition of growth remains a concern for many analysts, who note that the recovery has been driven largely by exports and state-backed investment rather than self-sustaining domestic demand, with the property sector still showing no clear sign of a bottom.

The data gives Beijing some breathing room on stimulus timing heading into year-end, even as the structural imbalances between export strength and weak household spending continue to shape the debate over how much additional policy support the economy still needs.